World Vaccine Clock

The clock above estimates when 70% of adults will be fully vaccinated. Initially, I mapped the vaccination efforts of each country, which can be found at the bottom of this page. Then, remembering the National Debt Clock, I decided to build this clock to track the worldwide vaccination effort.

How do you calculate the clock?

I use vaccine data from Our World in Data and population data from UN (links at bottom). It takes into account how many adults are fully vaccinated, partially vaccinated, and unvaccinated and assumes that the smoothed vaccination rate will remain constant.

Really, so soon?

I was also surprised. The above estimate assumes that vaccinations will continue at the current rate, which means that as countries vaccinate their population, vaccine supplies will move from mostly vaccinated countries to mostly unvaccinated ones.

Can it be worse?

There are several reasons why it could be. Boosters may be necessary to combat new strains. Children may need vaccines which will increase the total population that needs vaccines. Finally, another problem is whether vaccines from China will be exported elsewhere after they complete their vaccination campaign. Importantly, about 34 million people per day are being vaccinated, and an astounding 16 million of those doses are being given in China. If China is removed from the dataset, the total vaccination time increases to about 246 days.

Can it be better?

Certainly. The speed with vaccinations are being distributed is on a mostly upward trend. Supply and logistics are improving. Also, new vaccines are coming on-line (for example, see Novavax's Phase 3 press release).

Why 70% of adults?

I am particularly interested in these thresholds because vaccination programs take a "S"-shaped curve over time. In the beginning, there are supply constraints which slow down the distribution of vaccines. As supply and logistics improve, the vaccination program speeds up, until a large percentage of society is vaccinated, whereupon vaccination rates slow down due to vaccine hesitancy. This hesitancy threshold differs significantly from country to country, but the maps below model the first two stages of the vaccination programs before hesitancy becomes the limiting factor.

Note: Data is computed at a country level. When counting the vaccinated within a country, any additional vaccinations above 70% are not counted, so the target will not be reached by some countries vaccinating 90% while others vaccinate 50%.


Links:

Data and Analysis: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zymciWyFXsat2_JWEqU0Y1T3I8MEXlKmBdt1xVbTYAU/

UN Population Data: population.un.org/wpp/Download/Files/1_Indicators%20(Standard)/EXCEL_FILES/1_Population/WPP2019_POP_F08_1_TOTAL_POPULATION_BY_BROAD_AGE_GROUP_BOTH_SEXES.xlsx

Vaccination Data: github.com/owid/covid-19-data/blob/master/public/data/vaccinations/vaccinations.csv


Postscript:

For those interested, here is a photo of the National Debt Clock which you can find close to Bryant Park (photo by Lotzman Katzman, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Debt_Clock).